Why Many Nigerians Believe Terrorism Persists by Choice and Why U.S. Strikes Changed the Conversation

Across Nigeria, a difficult belief has taken root. Many citizens argue that the state has the military and intelligence capacity to significantly weaken terrorist groups, yet chooses not to act decisively. In private and public conversations, terrorism is described not only as a security crisis but as a system that benefits powerful interests. This perception shaped public reactions when the United States carried out airstrikes against ISIS-linked targets on Nigerian soil under President Donald Trump. While Abuja framed the operation as a joint effort based on shared intelligence, many Nigerians welcomed it as proof that decisive action is possible.

This article examines why distrust of government persists, why foreign intervention is increasingly justified in public discourse, and what this means for counterterrorism policy going forward.

The Belief That Capacity Exists but Will Is Missing

Nigeria maintains one of Africa’s largest armed forces and has spent billions of dollars on counterterrorism over the past decade. Yet attacks continue, territory shifts hands, and civilians remain exposed.

For many Nigerians, this contradiction fuels suspicion. The common argument is simple:

• If capacity exists and funding is available, failure must be political.

• Prolonged insecurity enables emergency budgets, secrecy, and limited oversight.

• Political and security elites gain influence, resources, and leverage during crises.

This perception does not deny the reality of terrorism. Boko Haram and ISIS-affiliated groups are real threats. The concern is that weak accountability allows parts of the system to benefit while citizens bear the cost.

Terrorism as a Political and Financial Asset

In public discourse, terrorism is increasingly described as a business model rather than only an ideological war. Nigerians point to patterns they believe are telling:

• Repeated emergency appropriations with little public accounting.

• Defence procurement controversies with limited consequences.

• Political careers built on fear management rather than threat elimination.

Whether fully accurate or not, this belief matters. Public trust is a strategic asset in counterterrorism. Once lost, even legitimate operations are viewed with skepticism, and every failure reinforces the narrative of deliberate neglect.

Why U.S. Strikes Were Publicly Welcomed

The U.S. strike against ISIS-linked targets marked a psychological turning point. Many Nigerians saw it as evidence that decisive, intelligence-driven action can disrupt terrorist networks quickly.

Public justification for the strike rested on three ideas:

• External actors lack local political incentives to prolong the conflict.

• Precision strikes demonstrate operational seriousness.

• Foreign involvement exposes the gap between declared capacity and visible outcomes.

The Nigerian government stated that it cooperated fully and shared intelligence to ensure precision. However, public reaction focused less on sovereignty and more on results. For many citizens, effectiveness outweighed discomfort about foreign military action.

What This Means for Policy and Trust

The growing call for external intervention reflects a deeper governance crisis. When citizens prefer foreign forces to domestic institutions, legitimacy erodes.

For policymakers and security leaders, the lesson is clear:

• Counterterrorism must deliver measurable results.

• Transparency matters as much as firepower.

• Strategic communication must be backed by evidence, not rhetoric.

Without reforms in oversight, procurement, and accountability, even successful operations will fail to restore trust.

Conclusion and the Role of OSRS

Nigeria’s terrorism challenge is both operational and political. Public belief that insecurity benefits elites has reshaped how citizens interpret government action and foreign intervention. U.S. strikes intensified this debate by showing what decisive action looks like.

OGUN Security Research and Strategic Consulting LLC supports governments, institutions, and partners by:

• Conducting independent intelligence and risk assessments.

• Strengthening transparency in security governance.

• Advising on counterterrorism strategy, strategic communications, and policy reform.

Effective security requires trust, accountability, and results. Without all three, no amount of force will end the cycle.

About the Author

Dr. Oludare Ogunlana is a cybersecurity and intelligence professional and the Founder and Principal Consultant of OGUN Security Research and Strategic Consulting LLC. He advises public and private sector leaders on counterterrorism, cybersecurity, intelligence analysis, and security governance, bridging policy, technology, and strategic communication across global security environments.

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